It All Comes To Aught – Part 2
There is now a significant risk of market dislocation as Trump will not swerve from his agenda, the Fed will be loathe to step in, and investors are unprepared for the volatility of volatility.
Starmer Ratings
++ With thanks to our hard working interns Amelia, Arabella, Max and Michiko for their help on this project ++
The Two Weeks That Will Be (30 March 2025)
Normally, Non-Farm Payrolls and US ISM (Tuesday and Friday), Fed Minutes (Wed 9 April) and Inflation from the US and China (Thursday 10 April) would be the key moments to pick out for the two weeks ahead, along with a side order of the Australian interest rate decision and Japan’s bellwether quarterly Tankan survey on Tuesday. But we …
Redundant Reeves
She has already been made redundant by her slavish obedience to the unfortunate OBR; her voters are about to make her redundant for failing to deliver on the mandate they gave her. The markets don’t need to wait for an October budget to deliver their verdict.
The Two Weeks That Will Be (16th March 2025)
1. Trump“the United States will impose a 5% Tariff on all goods coming into our Country from Mexico, until such time as illegal migrants coming through Mexico, and into our Country, STOP. The Tariff will gradually increase until the Illegal Immigration problem is remedied”. So tweeted Trump, on the same day that his Vice President flew back from Ottawa after …
It Will All Come To Aught
Five years ago, we argued that when it came to policymakers’ response to the impending pandemic, “it all comes to nought”: that interest rates would be slashed to zero but the impact would be far from enough to offset the financial crisis enveloping the world on top of a health crisis. While right on the …
Zeitenwende-wende
CDU leader and prospective German Chancellor Merz saw your Zeitenwende Olaf Scholz and he raised you. Three years ago, after Russia invaded Ukraine, Scholz announced a special defence spending programme of EUR 100bn in what he described as the “Zeitenwende”, or literally the “times turn”. Now Merz has doubled down on “the end of an era”. He announced limitless national borrowing …
The Two Weeks That Will Be (2nd March 2025)
1. Everyone“End our huge deficits, reduce our taxes, and let America’s economy grow unencumbered by the cost of defending those who can easily afford to pay us for the defense of their freedom“. No surprise these are the words of Donald J Trump. But perhaps a surprise to know they appeared on 2nd September 1987 …
The Two Weeks That Will Be (16th February 2025)
1. GermanyGermans go to the polls on Sunday and predicting the outcome is complicated by two elements of the electoral system: These electoral quirks might have had only a small impact in a stable system. But the German electorate has become just as fragmented as any other in the western world. Support has been ebbing away from …
The Two Weeks That Will Be
1. The USThe Tariff Man is back. Trump did suggest on inauguration day that he would impose tariffs from 1st Feb on Mexico and Canada and lo and behold he has. Eleven days was never going to have been enough time for either country to take measures to avoid the tariffs but what the market interpreted as a delay …
