The Two Weeks That Will Be
1. VolatilityWe started our last monthly missive with the phrase “On Wednesday the Bank of Japan will hike interest rates“, which suggests that a Japanese rate rise was at the very least a known unknown. The record collapse and then recovery in Japanese stock markets in the wake of the interest rate decision was far more of a Black Swan-esque unknown …
Rachel Reeves: Starts As She Means To Go On
Not quite a month into the new job and Rachel Reeves couldn’t help but issue a statement that lays bare the budgetary battle to come. More than just a statement in fact – there is also a letter to the Chair of the OBR and a policy paper from the Treasury entitled “Fixing the Foundations: …
The Month That Will Be
1. The Central BanksOn Wednesday the Bank of Japan will hike interest rates, the Fed will be unchanged but signal a cut is coming in September, on Thursday the Bank of England will leave rates dovishly unchanged and on Tuesday 6th August the RBA will hike if the Australia CPI data released Wednesday is even a smidge above expectations. In short, this is not quite the dovish pivot from the world’s …
Co-Cohabitation
++ France is an accident waiting to happen. The European Commission warned its “debt sustainability analysis indicates high risk over the medium term”. It cannot be governed effectively and it faces severely challenging debt/deficit dynamics. There should be a higher risk premium on French assets ++ If only forming a government in France were as simple …
The Two Weeks That Will Be
1. The USHollywood could not have written a more astonishing script for an electoral battle between two well-known pensioners whose combined age is two-thirds that of the United States of America itself. With all the impeachments, porn stars, felonies, dementia, constitutional chicanery and now assassination attempts, the public has almost certainly decided who the victor …
The Big Election Two Weeks That Will Be
1. The UKWe all know that Sir Keir Starmer will become the UK Prime Minister in the wake of the General Election on Thursday. We also know that he will have a decent majority, or even a massive one. That means we also know who the opposition will be: the Labour Party. Or rather, certain factions …
The Two Weeks That Will Be
1. The UK With UK headline inflation due to head back to the Bank of England’s target for the first time in three years on Wednesday, Rishi Sunak would have been hoping for a vote of thanks from the Great British Public. Instead, postal votes will be landing on people’s doorsteps just as Sunak’s net approval …
The Two Weeks That Will Be
1. The UK Election ++ See our separate note “UK Summer Election – Part 3” for full details ++ 2. European Parliament Elections “The future of the sovereigntist camp in Europe, and of the Right in general, now rests in the hands of two women”, said Hungary’s Viktor Orban about the potential shift in power …
