Five years ago, we argued that when it came to policymakers’ response to the impending pandemic, “it all comes to nought”: that interest rates would be slashed to zero but the impact would be far from enough to offset the financial crisis enveloping the world on top of a health crisis. While right on the …
CDU leader and prospective German Chancellor Merz saw your Zeitenwende Olaf Scholz and he raised you. Three years ago, after Russia invaded Ukraine, Scholz announced a special defence spending programme of EUR 100bn in what he described as the “Zeitenwende”, or literally the “times turn”. Now Merz has doubled down on “the end of an era”. He announced limitless national borrowing …
1. Everyone“End our huge deficits, reduce our taxes, and let America’s economy grow unencumbered by the cost of defending those who can easily afford to pay us for the defense of their freedom“. No surprise these are the words of Donald J Trump. But perhaps a surprise to know they appeared on 2nd September 1987 …
1. GermanyGermans go to the polls on Sunday and predicting the outcome is complicated by two elements of the electoral system: These electoral quirks might have had only a small impact in a stable system. But the German electorate has become just as fragmented as any other in the western world. Support has been ebbing away from …
1. The USThe Tariff Man is back. Trump did suggest on inauguration day that he would impose tariffs from 1st Feb on Mexico and Canada and lo and behold he has. Eleven days was never going to have been enough time for either country to take measures to avoid the tariffs but what the market interpreted as a delay …
1. TrumpThe next two weeks are all about one man and one man alone. Make sure you’ve downloaded Truth Social because that’s how US government is going to be done from now on. Even Mel Gibson didn’t know he had been made a special envoy to Hollywood until he was sent the tweeted announcement. Whatever a special envoy is. …
Last year we told you the UK election would happen sooner than you thought; that Trump would win; that Germany would call an early election; and that global conflict would heat up. This is the year where politics and financial markets collide. Forget business cycles or basis points on economic data. Something much bigger is …
In the aftermath of the Budget, Treasury Minister Darren Jones concluded ‘we’ve all got Liz Truss PTSD’. He was trying to swat away concerns about the post Budget move up in yields but he was right in more ways than one. The gamble has gone wrong. The floor manager is tapping Reeves on the shoulder …
The final two weeks before Trump returns. Except, he’s already back, isn’t he? In many ways these are the most powerful moments for an incoming US President as the courtiers muscle their way towards the new King and his enemies do deals in the shadows to avoid upcoming sanction, all without the leader having to …
1. The UKThe MPC will vote for an interest rate cut at the BOE meeting on Thursday. The inflation number released the day before on Wednesday is of less relevance given the steady drumbeat of disappointing growth data. (There is also the unemployment data released on Tuesday but with this data now wildly unfit for purpose it can largely be …
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