1. GermanyGermans go to the polls on Sunday and predicting the outcome is complicated by two elements of the electoral system: These electoral quirks might have had only a small impact in a stable system. But the German electorate has become just as fragmented as any other in the western world. Support has been ebbing away from …
1. The USThe Tariff Man is back. Trump did suggest on inauguration day that he would impose tariffs from 1st Feb on Mexico and Canada and lo and behold he has. Eleven days was never going to have been enough time for either country to take measures to avoid the tariffs but what the market interpreted as a delay …
1. TrumpThe next two weeks are all about one man and one man alone. Make sure you’ve downloaded Truth Social because that’s how US government is going to be done from now on. Even Mel Gibson didn’t know he had been made a special envoy to Hollywood until he was sent the tweeted announcement. Whatever a special envoy is. …
Last year we told you the UK election would happen sooner than you thought; that Trump would win; that Germany would call an early election; and that global conflict would heat up. This is the year where politics and financial markets collide. Forget business cycles or basis points on economic data. Something much bigger is …
In the aftermath of the Budget, Treasury Minister Darren Jones concluded ‘we’ve all got Liz Truss PTSD’. He was trying to swat away concerns about the post Budget move up in yields but he was right in more ways than one. The gamble has gone wrong. The floor manager is tapping Reeves on the shoulder …
The final two weeks before Trump returns. Except, he’s already back, isn’t he? In many ways these are the most powerful moments for an incoming US President as the courtiers muscle their way towards the new King and his enemies do deals in the shadows to avoid upcoming sanction, all without the leader having to …
1. The UKThe MPC will vote for an interest rate cut at the BOE meeting on Thursday. The inflation number released the day before on Wednesday is of less relevance given the steady drumbeat of disappointing growth data. (There is also the unemployment data released on Tuesday but with this data now wildly unfit for purpose it can largely be …
1. FranceLes jeux sont faits. France is headed for a crisis in the next two weeks, precisely because all the players in the game need the crisis. We call this the Superman power play: Clark Kent would never get elected but the hero in the cape saving the damsel in distress from the burning building …
1. The USBlondeMoney was set up precisely because the worlds of business and politics struggled hard to understand one another. Now with DJT v2.0 there is going to be no choice but to confront the Trumpian philosophy that politics is business. This will inevitably lead to confusion from those watching in Washington or Westminster but …
++ German snap elections are coming in March 2025 at the latest as the coalition decides its every man for himself ++
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