1. The UKThere is still one more forecast round to come from the OBR ahead of the Budget itself on Wednesday 26 November, meaning that there is a further interminable wait until Friday 21 November to assess whether the politically more palatable “smorgasbord” approach without income tax hikes really does mean the Chancellor meets her fiscal rules. If not, then …
Markets must price in more political volatility ahead, including risks of a more left wing government.
With the OBR producing its first “post measures” forecast on Monday 10th November, we are now in the fog of war for Budget negotiations. The Chancellor has been told she has to find X and she will now pick a combination of a, b, c, d and e to add up to that number. Given those …
1. The FedThe Fed will cut rates by 25bp on Wednesday 29th October with a number of wannabe-governor dissenters voting for even larger cuts. The doves are in the driving seat, with FOMC members getting themselves into knots trying to describe how tariffs create inflation persistence whilst a weakening jobs market requires less restrictive policy. Fed Kashkari tortuously summarised the …
1. JapanBarring an unlikely outbreak of consensus building between all of Japan’s opposition parties to unite against an alternative candidate, the new leader of the LDP, Sanae Takaichi, will become Japan’s first female Prime Minister in a parliamentary vote (probably on Wednesday 15th October). Her unexpected victory was driven by her strong showing with party members in the first …
1. Central BanksConsider a situation where the most recent government appointee to the central bank quickly becomes its most dovish member, voting for the biggest interest rate cuts in an attempt to drag the committee his way. His dissents take them into the unchartered territory of a three way split, forcing a second vote for …
Read more “The Two Weeks That Will Be (21st September 2025)”
