Overall this is a Budget in line with the principles Rachel Reeves set out in her Mais Lecture. Go hard and early on public sector investment, borrow and tax to pay for it and then reap the growth rewards down the track. The relatively easier ride given to private equity shows that lobby groups can …
We have created a Democrat Winnability Ranking for each state, where the higher the number, the more winnable the state for Harris. If we add up all electoral college votes for each state, Wisconsin is the finish line. If either candidate takes this state, along with all the others that should be winnable for them, …
1. The USAs we await to see how Israel will respond to Iran, the clock is ticking down to a new US President. Not that this is apparently of much interest to those trading US Treasuries, even though either winner will be increasing US debt and deficits in the years ahead. According to Bank of …
Just how worried is the Gilt market about increased borrowing by the new Labour government? This chart from Simon French of 10 year UK yields versus a G7 average shows that the spread has been widening of late, suggesting there is a UK specific issue behind the rise in 10 year yields: The FT has been peppered …
1. The UKThe Prime Minister has demonstrated his ruthlessness by ditching his Chief of Staff, Sue Gray, before even 100 days in office had been completed. It also demonstrates a surprising amount of pressure for a man who has just delivered an historic victory to his party. This does not bode well for the long term. Short …
1. The UKTeam BM is in Liverpool for the first Labour Party conference since the new regime took power. Away from the sideshow media tumult over free glasses and holidays, this will be the first real set piece moment for Rachel Reeves since she became Chancellor. She doesn’t want to pre-empt the OBR, obviously, for …
1. The USThe Fed will cut interest rates by 50bp on Wednesday 18th September. Or at least they will if Powell has anything to do with it (and the Fed is most certainly not a democracy). The arguments are lining up for him: the labour market is softening, the balance of risks to growth is shifting …
1. VolatilityWe started our last monthly missive with the phrase “On Wednesday the Bank of Japan will hike interest rates“, which suggests that a Japanese rate rise was at the very least a known unknown. The record collapse and then recovery in Japanese stock markets in the wake of the interest rate decision was far more of a Black Swan-esque unknown …
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