This is what we now know: What can we conclude from this? Politics, not economics, is driving policy. And with the prime minister and Chancellor intertwined into a weak, reactive position as they attempt to shore themselves up, they will continue to make decisions that roil the market rather than placate it. The day of …
Whilst the political and economic authorities of the UK wrangle with the ongoing fallout from the tortuous Budget process, there are a number of key events in the next two weeks that could add fuel to the fire. The most important dates will be two appearances in front of the Treasury Select Committee by the …
The Chancellor is in a mess. Although the Budget cleared the immediate hurdles of pleasing the left of her party whilst not frightening financial markets, the conduct of the process itself is in the spotlight. Who knew what and when is not just a parlour game for lobby journalists. Financial markets rely on information to …
But the damage it is doing to them politically will certainly hasten their departures.
1. The UKThere is still one more forecast round to come from the OBR ahead of the Budget itself on Wednesday 26 November, meaning that there is a further interminable wait until Friday 21 November to assess whether the politically more palatable “smorgasbord” approach without income tax hikes really does mean the Chancellor meets her fiscal rules. If not, then …
Markets must price in more political volatility ahead, including risks of a more left wing government.
With the OBR producing its first “post measures” forecast on Monday 10th November, we are now in the fog of war for Budget negotiations. The Chancellor has been told she has to find X and she will now pick a combination of a, b, c, d and e to add up to that number. Given those …
1. The FedThe Fed will cut rates by 25bp on Wednesday 29th October with a number of wannabe-governor dissenters voting for even larger cuts. The doves are in the driving seat, with FOMC members getting themselves into knots trying to describe how tariffs create inflation persistence whilst a weakening jobs market requires less restrictive policy. Fed Kashkari tortuously summarised the …
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