1. The USThe Powell era at the Fed is over. He is yesterday’s man, as should have been clear the moment a new President took over. Announcing his replacement for Chair now, ten months before his term ends, is not as unusual as the more hysterical headlines would suggest. Mark Carney took over as BOE …
++ With thanks to Tom Berey and the team for their hard work ++
The tears of a UK Chancellor would not normally trouble Gilt investors, unless they reflected, whether intentionally or not, the physical manifestation of an unstoppable political force meeting an immovable fiscal object. The detail of the government’s welfare reforms were scrambled together to ensure meeting the fiscal rules for the Spring Statement, only to unravel …
++ With thanks to the BM Team for their painstaking modelling work, particularly project leader Tom Berey ++
1. WarOnce again Trump might surprise with the timing of his interventions but not with their magnitude. In 2017 he authorised the first use of the MOAB bomb (in Afghanistan); in 2025 he has repeated the trick with the bunker-busting MOP in Iran. As he headlined in that newspaper advert he took out in 1987, “There’s nothing wrong with America’s Foreign …
The Bank of Japan, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England will all be unchanged on Tuesday 17 June, Wednesday 18 June and Thursday 19 June respectively. The first two want to wait and see what happens to tariffs whilst the BOE remain split over how soon to deliver the next interest rate cut. The BOE can’t even rely …
1. TradeTariff negotiations continue, as they will, ad nauseam, ad infinitum. Trump pops up to push things along, constantly hustling for the deal. Almost the exact opposite of how the EU operates, where a consensus emerges summit by summit, line by line, tortuous text twisted into tortuous text. As soon as the FT had briefed that ‘The …
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