Germany Elections Ahoy
++ German snap elections are coming in March 2025 at the latest as the coalition decides its every man for himself ++
US Election Forecast 2024
Get ready for the return of the Don. Our forecast sees DJT the winner, which will make it 12 years that the former east-coast-Democrat reality TV star has stood astride the top of US politics (assuming the by-then-octogenarian makes it through a full term). Wisconsin will be the key state to watch. Our Winnability Ranking …
The Two Weeks That Will Be
1. The US As we head into the final straight before election day on Tuesday, one of the factors that had been to Trump’s advantage is starting to slip away: that of momentum, reflected in a slight narrowing of the polls. This has showed up most startlingly in the final Ann Selzer poll for Iowa …
The Countdown Budget – Part 2
Overall this is a Budget in line with the principles Rachel Reeves set out in her Mais Lecture. Go hard and early on public sector investment, borrow and tax to pay for it and then reap the growth rewards down the track. The relatively easier ride given to private equity shows that lobby groups can …
US Election 2024
We have created a Democrat Winnability Ranking for each state, where the higher the number, the more winnable the state for Harris. If we add up all electoral college votes for each state, Wisconsin is the finish line. If either candidate takes this state, along with all the others that should be winnable for them, …
The Two Weeks That Will Be (20th October 2024)
1. The USAs we await to see how Israel will respond to Iran, the clock is ticking down to a new US President. Not that this is apparently of much interest to those trading US Treasuries, even though either winner will be increasing US debt and deficits in the years ahead. According to Bank of …
The Countdown Budget
In Reeves We Truss
Just how worried is the Gilt market about increased borrowing by the new Labour government? This chart from Simon French of 10 year UK yields versus a G7 average shows that the spread has been widening of late, suggesting there is a UK specific issue behind the rise in 10 year yields: The FT has been peppered …
The Two Weeks That Will Be
1. The UKThe Prime Minister has demonstrated his ruthlessness by ditching his Chief of Staff, Sue Gray, before even 100 days in office had been completed. It also demonstrates a surprising amount of pressure for a man who has just delivered an historic victory to his party. This does not bode well for the long term. Short …
The Two Weeks That Will Be
1. The UKTeam BM is in Liverpool for the first Labour Party conference since the new regime took power. Away from the sideshow media tumult over free glasses and holidays, this will be the first real set piece moment for Rachel Reeves since she became Chancellor. She doesn’t want to pre-empt the OBR, obviously, for …
