Last year we told you the UK election would happen sooner than you thought; that Trump would win; that Germany would call an early election; and that global conflict would heat up. This is the year where politics and financial markets collide. Forget business cycles or basis points on economic data. Something much bigger is …
In the aftermath of the Budget, Treasury Minister Darren Jones concluded ‘we’ve all got Liz Truss PTSD’. He was trying to swat away concerns about the post Budget move up in yields but he was right in more ways than one. The gamble has gone wrong. The floor manager is tapping Reeves on the shoulder …
The final two weeks before Trump returns. Except, he’s already back, isn’t he? In many ways these are the most powerful moments for an incoming US President as the courtiers muscle their way towards the new King and his enemies do deals in the shadows to avoid upcoming sanction, all without the leader having to …
1. The UKThe MPC will vote for an interest rate cut at the BOE meeting on Thursday. The inflation number released the day before on Wednesday is of less relevance given the steady drumbeat of disappointing growth data. (There is also the unemployment data released on Tuesday but with this data now wildly unfit for purpose it can largely be …
1. FranceLes jeux sont faits. France is headed for a crisis in the next two weeks, precisely because all the players in the game need the crisis. We call this the Superman power play: Clark Kent would never get elected but the hero in the cape saving the damsel in distress from the burning building …
1. The USBlondeMoney was set up precisely because the worlds of business and politics struggled hard to understand one another. Now with DJT v2.0 there is going to be no choice but to confront the Trumpian philosophy that politics is business. This will inevitably lead to confusion from those watching in Washington or Westminster but …
++ German snap elections are coming in March 2025 at the latest as the coalition decides its every man for himself ++
Get ready for the return of the Don. Our forecast sees DJT the winner, which will make it 12 years that the former east-coast-Democrat reality TV star has stood astride the top of US politics (assuming the by-then-octogenarian makes it through a full term). Wisconsin will be the key state to watch. Our Winnability Ranking …
1. The US As we head into the final straight before election day on Tuesday, one of the factors that had been to Trump’s advantage is starting to slip away: that of momentum, reflected in a slight narrowing of the polls. This has showed up most startlingly in the final Ann Selzer poll for Iowa …
Overall this is a Budget in line with the principles Rachel Reeves set out in her Mais Lecture. Go hard and early on public sector investment, borrow and tax to pay for it and then reap the growth rewards down the track. The relatively easier ride given to private equity shows that lobby groups can …
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