Starmer Ratings
++ With thanks to our hard working interns Amelia, Arabella, Max and Michiko for their help on this project ++
The Two Weeks That Will Be (30 March 2025)
Normally, Non-Farm Payrolls and US ISM (Tuesday and Friday), Fed Minutes (Wed 9 April) and Inflation from the US and China (Thursday 10 April) would be the key moments to pick out for the two weeks ahead, along with a side order of the Australian interest rate decision and Japan’s bellwether quarterly Tankan survey on Tuesday. But we …
Redundant Reeves
She has already been made redundant by her slavish obedience to the unfortunate OBR; her voters are about to make her redundant for failing to deliver on the mandate they gave her. The markets don’t need to wait for an October budget to deliver their verdict.
Zeitenwende-wende
CDU leader and prospective German Chancellor Merz saw your Zeitenwende Olaf Scholz and he raised you. Three years ago, after Russia invaded Ukraine, Scholz announced a special defence spending programme of EUR 100bn in what he described as the “Zeitenwende”, or literally the “times turn”. Now Merz has doubled down on “the end of an era”. He announced limitless national borrowing …
The Two Weeks That Will Be (2nd March 2025)
1. Everyone“End our huge deficits, reduce our taxes, and let America’s economy grow unencumbered by the cost of defending those who can easily afford to pay us for the defense of their freedom“. No surprise these are the words of Donald J Trump. But perhaps a surprise to know they appeared on 2nd September 1987 …
The Two Weeks That Will Be (16th February 2025)
1. GermanyGermans go to the polls on Sunday and predicting the outcome is complicated by two elements of the electoral system: These electoral quirks might have had only a small impact in a stable system. But the German electorate has become just as fragmented as any other in the western world. Support has been ebbing away from …
The Two Weeks That Will Be
1. The USThe Tariff Man is back. Trump did suggest on inauguration day that he would impose tariffs from 1st Feb on Mexico and Canada and lo and behold he has. Eleven days was never going to have been enough time for either country to take measures to avoid the tariffs but what the market interpreted as a delay …
The Two Weeks That Will Be
1. TrumpThe next two weeks are all about one man and one man alone. Make sure you’ve downloaded Truth Social because that’s how US government is going to be done from now on. Even Mel Gibson didn’t know he had been made a special envoy to Hollywood until he was sent the tweeted announcement. Whatever a special envoy is. …
The Year That Will Be 2025
Last year we told you the UK election would happen sooner than you thought; that Trump would win; that Germany would call an early election; and that global conflict would heat up. This is the year where politics and financial markets collide. Forget business cycles or basis points on economic data. Something much bigger is …
In Reeves We Truss – Part 2
In the aftermath of the Budget, Treasury Minister Darren Jones concluded ‘we’ve all got Liz Truss PTSD’. He was trying to swat away concerns about the post Budget move up in yields but he was right in more ways than one. The gamble has gone wrong. The floor manager is tapping Reeves on the shoulder …
