The final two weeks before Trump returns. Except, he’s already back, isn’t he? In many ways these are the most powerful moments for an incoming US President as the courtiers muscle their way towards the new King and his enemies do deals in the shadows to avoid upcoming sanction, all without the leader having to …
1. The UKThe MPC will vote for an interest rate cut at the BOE meeting on Thursday. The inflation number released the day before on Wednesday is of less relevance given the steady drumbeat of disappointing growth data. (There is also the unemployment data released on Tuesday but with this data now wildly unfit for purpose it can largely be …
1. FranceLes jeux sont faits. France is headed for a crisis in the next two weeks, precisely because all the players in the game need the crisis. We call this the Superman power play: Clark Kent would never get elected but the hero in the cape saving the damsel in distress from the burning building …
1. The USBlondeMoney was set up precisely because the worlds of business and politics struggled hard to understand one another. Now with DJT v2.0 there is going to be no choice but to confront the Trumpian philosophy that politics is business. This will inevitably lead to confusion from those watching in Washington or Westminster but …
++ German snap elections are coming in March 2025 at the latest as the coalition decides its every man for himself ++
Get ready for the return of the Don. Our forecast sees DJT the winner, which will make it 12 years that the former east-coast-Democrat reality TV star has stood astride the top of US politics (assuming the by-then-octogenarian makes it through a full term). Wisconsin will be the key state to watch. Our Winnability Ranking …
1. The US As we head into the final straight before election day on Tuesday, one of the factors that had been to Trump’s advantage is starting to slip away: that of momentum, reflected in a slight narrowing of the polls. This has showed up most startlingly in the final Ann Selzer poll for Iowa …
Overall this is a Budget in line with the principles Rachel Reeves set out in her Mais Lecture. Go hard and early on public sector investment, borrow and tax to pay for it and then reap the growth rewards down the track. The relatively easier ride given to private equity shows that lobby groups can …
We have created a Democrat Winnability Ranking for each state, where the higher the number, the more winnable the state for Harris. If we add up all electoral college votes for each state, Wisconsin is the finish line. If either candidate takes this state, along with all the others that should be winnable for them, …
1. The USAs we await to see how Israel will respond to Iran, the clock is ticking down to a new US President. Not that this is apparently of much interest to those trading US Treasuries, even though either winner will be increasing US debt and deficits in the years ahead. According to Bank of …
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