1. The UKThe Prime Minister has demonstrated his ruthlessness by ditching his Chief of Staff, Sue Gray, before even 100 days in office had been completed. It also demonstrates a surprising amount of pressure for a man who has just delivered an historic victory to his party. This does not bode well for the long term. Short …
1. The UKTeam BM is in Liverpool for the first Labour Party conference since the new regime took power. Away from the sideshow media tumult over free glasses and holidays, this will be the first real set piece moment for Rachel Reeves since she became Chancellor. She doesn’t want to pre-empt the OBR, obviously, for …
1. The USThe Fed will cut interest rates by 50bp on Wednesday 18th September. Or at least they will if Powell has anything to do with it (and the Fed is most certainly not a democracy). The arguments are lining up for him: the labour market is softening, the balance of risks to growth is shifting …
1. VolatilityWe started our last monthly missive with the phrase “On Wednesday the Bank of Japan will hike interest rates“, which suggests that a Japanese rate rise was at the very least a known unknown. The record collapse and then recovery in Japanese stock markets in the wake of the interest rate decision was far more of a Black Swan-esque unknown …
Not quite a month into the new job and Rachel Reeves couldn’t help but issue a statement that lays bare the budgetary battle to come. More than just a statement in fact – there is also a letter to the Chair of the OBR and a policy paper from the Treasury entitled “Fixing the Foundations: …
++ France is an accident waiting to happen. The European Commission warned its “debt sustainability analysis indicates high risk over the medium term”. It cannot be governed effectively and it faces severely challenging debt/deficit dynamics. There should be a higher risk premium on French assets ++ If only forming a government in France were as simple …
1. The USHollywood could not have written a more astonishing script for an electoral battle between two well-known pensioners whose combined age is two-thirds that of the United States of America itself. With all the impeachments, porn stars, felonies, dementia, constitutional chicanery and now assassination attempts, the public has almost certainly decided who the victor …
1. The UK Election ++ See our separate note “UK Summer Election – Part 3” for full details ++ 2. European Parliament Elections “The future of the sovereigntist camp in Europe, and of the Right in general, now rests in the hands of two women”, said Hungary’s Viktor Orban about the potential shift in power …
1. The UK With UK headline inflation due to head back to the Bank of England’s target for the first time in three years on Wednesday, Rishi Sunak would have been hoping for a vote of thanks from the Great British Public. Instead, postal votes will be landing on people’s doorsteps just as Sunak’s net approval …
